http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-16536598
#100yearpredictions
The BBC had a fun little article on the predictions for the next hundred years.
I think some of them are on the mark (Ocean farming, enhanced brains) while others
are well off the mark (control the weather)
Here are my predictions for the world in 100 years.
First my top 5 predictions:
1. Space Colonies:
We will have viable self sustained colonies off earth (Mars or the Moon).
Not large colonies, but self sustaining none-the-less.
2. Life Expectancy Explosion:
We will exceed the mark of extending our life expectancy by an additional
year every year (we have been headed in this direction for a hundred years already
and it isn't showing any signs of stopping). Which implies that for some they
can live "forever". The limiting factor will become the brain and how long we
can keep it functioning, resilient and young.
3. Nature will prevail and flourish:
Wild lands will proliferate: Population will have peaked in 2060 at 8.5 billion
and have reduced to 7 billion by 2112. Genetically modified food will enable
the feeding of the population on less arable land per person than at any time in history.
Meaning as the population drops from 8.6 billion to 7 billion the Earth will have
more wild lands returned to it on a yearly basis than taken, in fact this process
will begin before the peak of 8.6 billion, we already see it in the developed world.
4. Energy use will both explode and be sustained:
Energy use will be 100 times the energy use of 2112. We will however
have developed the necessary technologies to handle the energy needs. Carbon
fuels will still make up a large percentage (30-55%, closer to 55%). Green energy
will still make up an small percentage (5-15%, closer to 5%). The solutions
will be nuclear based, whether safer fission or viable fusion (30%-65%, closer to
50%). The only potential green power would be off earth solar, but that is unlikely.
5. We will still have personal cars, but they will be smart:
Smart cars will be everywhere, but flexible, attached to the world GPS system
(whatever it is called then).
Now some brief comments on the predictions made at the BBC:
1. Oceans farmed extensively:
Makes sense to me - 9/10
2. Thought communication:
If you consider a form of thought enabled texting as thought, then 10/10.
3. Thanks to DNA and robotic engineering, we will have created incredibly
intelligent humans who are immortal.
Naa, there will be some enhancements, but immortal super beings? nope 4/10
4. control the weather.
In a word no - 0/10.
5. Antarctica will be "open for business"
Well 100 years is a long time, but Antarctica is a very hard place to live
and work. All other avenues of resource extraction will need to be exhausted
before this expensive undertaking is done. That isn't going to happen in 100years.
Unlikely 2/10.
6. One single worldwide currency.
No. Centralizing currency goes against local economic control.
You need a world government and a world economic body with regulation control before
you could even attempt this. That would completely suck and drive a horrid amount
of poverty. 1/10
7. We will all be wired to computers to make our brains work faster.
In some way or in many ways I think this is inevitable. 9/10
8. Nanorobots will flow around our body fixing cells, and will be able to
record our memories:
eh...The jury’s out on nanotech for something like this, 2/10. If a sci fi writer
can write about it doesn't mean it's gonna happen.
9. We will have sussed nuclear fusion:
Always a pipe dream, never a reality. 4/10
10. There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and
Mandarin:
Never. Too many people, too many countries. 1/10
11. Eighty per cent of the world will have gay marriage?
Until you solve islam, this is a pipe dream. 0/10
12. California will lead the break-up of the US:
More likely that Texas will leave than California. California can't afford to
leave. If it did it would turn into Argentina overnight. Bankrupt and
a banana republic. 1/10
13. Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy.
Pipe Dream. A cool pipe dream, but still a pipe dream. 1/10
14. Women will be routinely impregnated by artificial insemination rather
than by a man:
When sex is so fun and the ability to get pregnant so easy, why would we need to have
an expensive procedure to replace it? 2/10
15. There will be museums for almost every aspect of nature, as so much of
the world's natural habitat will have been destroyed:
I refuse to be pessimistic about this. The environmental movement has made incredible
strides in preserving the wild and at least in the Capitalistic west it has done a
great job of saving and rebuilding endangered species. Low probability.
2/10.
16. Deserts will become tropical forests:
Cool idea, how do we make it pay, how do we pay for it? But a feasible engineering
task. 5.5/10 Just a little better than half.
17. Marriage will be replaced by an annual contract:
Truly a first world prediction. But maybe a plurality in the minority
of first world countries. 2/10
18. Sovereign nation states will cease to exist and there will be one world
government:
Zero percent chance. The bigger the government, the worse it is. I hope
for the opposite. 0/10
19. War by the West will be fought totally by remote control:
8/10 - sure looks headed that way.
20. Britain will have had a revolution:
Kicking out the progressives from govt. would be a great start. but
I don't think there will be a revolution. 2/10
